Prediction in Criminology

Edited by David P. Farrington & Roger Tarling

Subjects: Criminology
Series: SUNY series in Critical Issues in Criminal Justice
Paperback : 9780887060038, 278 pages, September 1985
Hardcover : 9780887060045, 278 pages, September 1985

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Table of contents


List of Contributors

I. Introductory Section

One. Criminological Prediction: An Introduction
David P. Farrington and Roger Tarling

Two. The Politics of Prediction
Leslie T. Wilkins

II. Parole Prediction

Three. Screening for Risk among Parolees: Policy, Practice, and Method
Stephen D. Gottfredson and Don M. Gottfredson

Four. Predicting Failure on Parole
William L. Wilbanks

III. Custodial Prediction

Five. Predicting Recidivism Using Institutional Measures
Gillian Hill

Six. Predicting Absconding from Young Offender Institutions
David Thornton and Sheila Speirs

Seven. Prediction and Treatment of Self-Injury by Female Young Offenders
J. Eric Cullen

IV. Other Criminological Applications

Eight. Predicting Self-Reported and Official Delinquency
David P. Farrington

Nine. Predicting Outcomes of Mentally Disordered and Dangerous Offenders
Tony Black and Penny Spinks

Ten. Modelling a Criminal Justice System
R. Gordon Cassidy

V. Statistical Methodology

Eleven. Statistical Methods in Criminological Prediction
Roger Tarling and John A. Perry

Twelve. Prediction Equations, Statistical Analysis, and Shrinkage
John B. Copas

VI. Conclusions

Thirteen. Criminological Prediction: The Way Forward
David P. Farrington and Roger Tarling

Author Index

Subject Index


Prediction in Criminology is the first book to bring together a wide variety of articles on prediction research in criminology. It stresses not only substantive findings but also the methodology of prediction research, and demonstrates how similar issues arise in many applications: problems of research design, the choice of predictor and criterion variables, methods of selecting and combining variables into a prediction instrument, measures of predictive efficiency, and external validity or generalizability. The collection includes research from the United States, Canada, and Great Britain and will be of interest to an international audience of policy makers, practitioners, academics, and researchers.

David P. Farrington obtained a Ph. D. in experimental psychology from Cambridge University. On the staff of the Cambridge University Institute of Criminology since 1969, he is currently a Lecturer in Criminology at Cambridge University. Farrington published seven books and more than 60 papers on criminological and psychological topics. Chairman of the Division of Criminological and Legal Psychology of the British Psychological Society, he is also a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences Panel on Criminal Career Research. In 1984 he received the Sellin-Glueck Award of the American Society of Criminology. Roger Tarling graduated in economics and social statistics at London University and obtained the Diploma in Statistics awarded by the Institute of Statisticians. He has been on the staff of the Home Office Research and Planning Unit since 1972 and is currently a Principal Research Officer. Currently a member of the Governing Council of the Institute of Statisticians, he has published six books and research monographs and more than 30 articles on criminological topics.


"The selections are excellent, giving a good overview and a diversity of methods used and compared. The volume thus gives a good portrayal of the 'present state of the art. ' It includes thoughtful and useful discussions of pertinent ethical issues as well as scientific ones, sound scholarship, generally careful writing, and the conclusions are well supported by the evidence presented. " — Don M. Gottfredson